2008/11/26 22:52, 这是调用雅虎英文的，即时更新，应该是几分钟就会变化一次。很准确。澳元人民币的：http://www.mlzy.net/post/125/
或者直接登录http://www.jrxxw.com 首页上天天挂着美元人民币汇率走势图，这个也不错。
第一章 罗斯柴尔德家族： "大道无形"的世界首富
只要我能控制一个国家的货币发行，我不在乎谁制订法律。[1] 梅耶·罗斯柴尔德
本章导读
当国际媒体成天炒作身家500亿美元的比尔·盖茨蝉联世界首富宝座的时候，如果你信以为真，你就上当了。因为在人们耳熟能详的所谓富豪排行榜上，你根本找不到"大道无形"的超级富豪们的身影，因为他们早已严密地控制了西方主要的媒体。
所谓\"大隐隐于朝\"。如今，罗斯柴尔德家族仍在经营着银行业务，但是如果我们随机在北京或上海的街头问100个中国人，其中可能有99个知道美国花旗银行，而不见得有1个知道罗斯柴尔德银行。
究竟谁是罗斯柴尔德？如果一个从事金融行业的人，从来没有听说过\"罗斯柴尔德\"这个名字，就如同一个军人不知道拿破仑，研究物理学的人不知道爱因斯坦一样不可思议。奇怪却并不意外的是，这个名字对绝大多数中国人来说是非常陌生的，但它对中国人民乃至世界人民的过去、现在和未来的影响力是如此巨大，而其知名度是如此之低，其隐身能力让人叹为观止。
罗斯柴尔德家族究竟拥有多少财富？这是一个世界之迷。保守的估计是50万亿美元！[2] 罗斯柴尔德家族到底是怎样赚到如此惊人的财富的？这就是本章要告诉你的故事。
严密的家族控制，完全不透明的黑箱操作，像钟表一般精确的协调，永远早于市场的信息获取，彻头彻尾的冷酷理智，永无止境的金权欲望，以及基于这一切的对金钱和财富的深刻洞察和天才的预见力，使得罗斯柴尔德家族在世界两百多年金融、政治和战争的残酷旋涡中所向披靡，建立了一个迄今为止人类历史上最为庞大的金融帝国。
只要我能控制一个国家的货币发行，我不在乎谁制订法律。[1] 梅耶·罗斯柴尔德
本章导读
当国际媒体成天炒作身家500亿美元的比尔·盖茨蝉联世界首富宝座的时候，如果你信以为真，你就上当了。因为在人们耳熟能详的所谓富豪排行榜上，你根本找不到"大道无形"的超级富豪们的身影，因为他们早已严密地控制了西方主要的媒体。
所谓\"大隐隐于朝\"。如今，罗斯柴尔德家族仍在经营着银行业务，但是如果我们随机在北京或上海的街头问100个中国人，其中可能有99个知道美国花旗银行，而不见得有1个知道罗斯柴尔德银行。
究竟谁是罗斯柴尔德？如果一个从事金融行业的人，从来没有听说过\"罗斯柴尔德\"这个名字，就如同一个军人不知道拿破仑，研究物理学的人不知道爱因斯坦一样不可思议。奇怪却并不意外的是，这个名字对绝大多数中国人来说是非常陌生的，但它对中国人民乃至世界人民的过去、现在和未来的影响力是如此巨大，而其知名度是如此之低，其隐身能力让人叹为观止。
罗斯柴尔德家族究竟拥有多少财富？这是一个世界之迷。保守的估计是50万亿美元！[2] 罗斯柴尔德家族到底是怎样赚到如此惊人的财富的？这就是本章要告诉你的故事。
严密的家族控制，完全不透明的黑箱操作，像钟表一般精确的协调，永远早于市场的信息获取，彻头彻尾的冷酷理智，永无止境的金权欲望，以及基于这一切的对金钱和财富的深刻洞察和天才的预见力，使得罗斯柴尔德家族在世界两百多年金融、政治和战争的残酷旋涡中所向披靡，建立了一个迄今为止人类历史上最为庞大的金融帝国。
转载前言：这本书一直被网络众多读者推崇，我此前也长期有心查看。可惜凡心俗念过多，一直未能认真拜读。今天开始每天一个章节阅读、转载，并与所有朋友共勉。
关于该书的转载出处、说明，请见本章节末尾处。
第1节：前言
前言
起航的中国经济航母，会一帆风顺么？
—写在中国加入WTO五周年、金融全面对外资开放之际
赵煜■
2006年，美国财长保尔森在访华前夕接受美国全国广播公司有线电视频道CNBC访问时指出，作为经济大国，“他们已是全球经济的领导者，世界其他国家不会再给他们很多时间”。毫无疑问，这个“他们”，就是中国。
显然，今天的中国，正以惊人的速度，将自己变成全球经济举足轻重的一部分。一系列的经济数据和迹象都表明，庞大的中国经济航母，已经起程。
如果说，三年前政治局请几位学者进京讲授大国崛起的历史，还只是在为中国可以预见的发展做准备，那么从“崛起”到“发展”提法上的变化，就足以看出中国自信心的调整，看出中国经济发展的速度之快，甚至超过了中央电视台那部叫做《大国崛起》的纪录片的拍摄速度。
全世界都把目光对准中国：“21世纪将是中国人的世纪”、“2040年左右，中国的经济实力将赶超美国”，类似的说法不绝于耳，似乎中国成为世界第一经济强国已成定局。
然而，起航的中国经济航母，会一帆风顺么？在未来至关重要的50年内，中国经济能够保持现有的“航速”，勇往直前么？可能影响航向、航线、航程的不可测因素又有哪些呢？
关于该书的转载出处、说明，请见本章节末尾处。
第1节：前言
前言
起航的中国经济航母，会一帆风顺么？
—写在中国加入WTO五周年、金融全面对外资开放之际
赵煜■
2006年，美国财长保尔森在访华前夕接受美国全国广播公司有线电视频道CNBC访问时指出，作为经济大国，“他们已是全球经济的领导者，世界其他国家不会再给他们很多时间”。毫无疑问，这个“他们”，就是中国。
显然，今天的中国，正以惊人的速度，将自己变成全球经济举足轻重的一部分。一系列的经济数据和迹象都表明，庞大的中国经济航母，已经起程。
如果说，三年前政治局请几位学者进京讲授大国崛起的历史，还只是在为中国可以预见的发展做准备，那么从“崛起”到“发展”提法上的变化，就足以看出中国自信心的调整，看出中国经济发展的速度之快，甚至超过了中央电视台那部叫做《大国崛起》的纪录片的拍摄速度。
全世界都把目光对准中国：“21世纪将是中国人的世纪”、“2040年左右，中国的经济实力将赶超美国”，类似的说法不绝于耳，似乎中国成为世界第一经济强国已成定局。
然而，起航的中国经济航母，会一帆风顺么？在未来至关重要的50年内，中国经济能够保持现有的“航速”，勇往直前么？可能影响航向、航线、航程的不可测因素又有哪些呢？
此篇文章是偶尔从yahoo的知识导航上看到的，觉得这样划分很有趣，就转载过来了，跟大家一起分享：
转载内容开始：
职业投资者的水平高低犹如棋手的段位，要进化到更高的境界，自然需经历艰苦的修行。
很多特殊行业都有水平等级的划分，金融投资行业也是如此。虽然没有严格意义上的量化指标，但职业投资者的水平高低犹如棋手的段位，在实战操作中，从一个新手变为职业投资者，再进化到更高的境界，自然要经历艰苦的修行。
笔者从多年的投资经验中总结到，从初入市场的菜鸟到云深高处的巴菲特，市场里的芸芸众生根据水准差异可以区分为以下各种。
一段：刚进入市场，对市场里的一切充满好奇和激情，买什么卖什么自己拿不定主意。道听途说，盲目听从朋友建议，参看各种所谓专家的分析评论。
二段：对投资品种有所了解，频繁进行日内交易，小胜即安的愉悦让初始资金很快就建了满仓。赚钱就平仓，亏钱就扛着，总想解套却越陷越深。
三段：开始学习，听讲座，知道一些技术指标，MACD、KDJ、RSI之类的，觉得它们有时准有时又不准。和散户们谈论基本面情况和宏观政策，交易频繁，时赚时亏，结果，帐户仍然是亏损的。
四段：已经交易了一段时间，在市场上有三次以上如被雷劈的大亏或暴仓经历，开始以沧桑经历对新手夸夸其谈。但心里总觉得要在这个市场赚钱真的很难，翻看的书本和听从的专家建议也不是很灵。研究指标，调整参数，请教高手，却时不时地陷入迷茫，一时不知何去何从。
五段：开始明白要在这个市场上赚钱必须要有一套交易系统，于是系统的学习，波浪理论、江恩测市、混沌理论、顺势而为、止损定律、资金管理等等，时而觉得找到了战胜市场的法宝信心百倍，时而面对市场何时反转把握不准束手无策，面对亏损的账单，考虑是不是该放弃了。
六段：开始明白在这个市场上无法预测价格走势，第一次用概率来考虑问题，每一次进场便知道风险和报酬的比率各是多少，错了会止损，盈利的单子也能拿得住了。
转载内容开始：
职业投资者的水平高低犹如棋手的段位，要进化到更高的境界，自然需经历艰苦的修行。
很多特殊行业都有水平等级的划分，金融投资行业也是如此。虽然没有严格意义上的量化指标，但职业投资者的水平高低犹如棋手的段位，在实战操作中，从一个新手变为职业投资者，再进化到更高的境界，自然要经历艰苦的修行。
笔者从多年的投资经验中总结到，从初入市场的菜鸟到云深高处的巴菲特，市场里的芸芸众生根据水准差异可以区分为以下各种。
一段：刚进入市场，对市场里的一切充满好奇和激情，买什么卖什么自己拿不定主意。道听途说，盲目听从朋友建议，参看各种所谓专家的分析评论。
二段：对投资品种有所了解，频繁进行日内交易，小胜即安的愉悦让初始资金很快就建了满仓。赚钱就平仓，亏钱就扛着，总想解套却越陷越深。
三段：开始学习，听讲座，知道一些技术指标，MACD、KDJ、RSI之类的，觉得它们有时准有时又不准。和散户们谈论基本面情况和宏观政策，交易频繁，时赚时亏，结果，帐户仍然是亏损的。
四段：已经交易了一段时间，在市场上有三次以上如被雷劈的大亏或暴仓经历，开始以沧桑经历对新手夸夸其谈。但心里总觉得要在这个市场赚钱真的很难，翻看的书本和听从的专家建议也不是很灵。研究指标，调整参数，请教高手，却时不时地陷入迷茫，一时不知何去何从。
五段：开始明白要在这个市场上赚钱必须要有一套交易系统，于是系统的学习，波浪理论、江恩测市、混沌理论、顺势而为、止损定律、资金管理等等，时而觉得找到了战胜市场的法宝信心百倍，时而面对市场何时反转把握不准束手无策，面对亏损的账单，考虑是不是该放弃了。
六段：开始明白在这个市场上无法预测价格走势，第一次用概率来考虑问题，每一次进场便知道风险和报酬的比率各是多少，错了会止损，盈利的单子也能拿得住了。
To the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President pro tempore of the Senate:
As economists, we want to express to Congress our great concern for the plan proposed by Treasury Secretary Paulson to deal with the financial crisis. We are well aware of the difficulty of the current financial situation and we agree with the need for bold action to ensure that the financial system continues to function. We see three fatal pitfalls in the currently proposed plan:
1) Its fairness. The plan is a subsidy to investors at taxpayers’ expense. Investors who took risks to earn profits must also bear the losses. Not every business failure carries systemic risk. The government can ensure a well-functioning financial industry, able to make new loans to creditworthy borrowers, without bailing out particular investors and institutions whose choices proved unwise.
2) Its ambiguity. Neither the mission of the new agency nor its oversight are clear. If taxpayers are to buy illiquid and opaque assets from troubled sellers, the terms, occasions, and methods of such purchases must be crystal clear ahead of time and carefully monitored afterwards.
3) Its long-term effects. If the plan is enacted, its effects will be with us for a generation. For all their recent troubles, America's dynamic and innovative private capital markets have brought the nation unparalleled prosperity. Fundamentally weakening those markets in order to calm short-run disruptions is desperately short-sighted.
For these reasons we ask Congress not to rush, to hold appropriate hearings, and to carefully consider the right course of action, and to wisely determine the future of the financial industry and the U.S. economy for years to come.
Signed (updated 9/24/2008 10:30AM CT)
As economists, we want to express to Congress our great concern for the plan proposed by Treasury Secretary Paulson to deal with the financial crisis. We are well aware of the difficulty of the current financial situation and we agree with the need for bold action to ensure that the financial system continues to function. We see three fatal pitfalls in the currently proposed plan:
1) Its fairness. The plan is a subsidy to investors at taxpayers’ expense. Investors who took risks to earn profits must also bear the losses. Not every business failure carries systemic risk. The government can ensure a well-functioning financial industry, able to make new loans to creditworthy borrowers, without bailing out particular investors and institutions whose choices proved unwise.
2) Its ambiguity. Neither the mission of the new agency nor its oversight are clear. If taxpayers are to buy illiquid and opaque assets from troubled sellers, the terms, occasions, and methods of such purchases must be crystal clear ahead of time and carefully monitored afterwards.
3) Its long-term effects. If the plan is enacted, its effects will be with us for a generation. For all their recent troubles, America's dynamic and innovative private capital markets have brought the nation unparalleled prosperity. Fundamentally weakening those markets in order to calm short-run disruptions is desperately short-sighted.
For these reasons we ask Congress not to rush, to hold appropriate hearings, and to carefully consider the right course of action, and to wisely determine the future of the financial industry and the U.S. economy for years to come.
Signed (updated 9/24/2008 10:30AM CT)
01:54 25/09 DJ
------------------------------
华盛顿（道琼斯）--美国总统布什(George W. Bush)警告称，美国正处于严重的金融危机，他认为美国经济形势十分严峻，面临长期陷入衰退的风险，以此让疑虑重重的美国民众相信其提出的7,000亿美元的救助计划是必要的。
布什在周三晚间的黄金时段向全国民众发表讲话时称，整个美国经济正面临危险。这是迄今为止他对金融危机发表的最为严厉的讲话。
布什称，救助计划并不是为了保护个别公司或行业，而是旨在保护整个美国经济；它将帮助美国消费者和公司获得信贷，以满足其日常需求，并创造就业机会；它将有助于向全球市场传递一个信号，即美国金融系统正恢复正常运转。
布什政府因未能早一些提出救助方案而受到指责，对这一点，布什寻求解释问题的根源以及不作为的严重后果。
布什称，如果政府不采取行动，那么美国将陷入金融恐慌，并将出现痛苦不堪的局面。
-By Henry J. Pulizzi, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9256; henry.pulizzi@dowjones.com
-0-
版权所有(c)2008道琼斯公司
------------------------------
华盛顿（道琼斯）--美国总统布什(George W. Bush)警告称，美国正处于严重的金融危机，他认为美国经济形势十分严峻，面临长期陷入衰退的风险，以此让疑虑重重的美国民众相信其提出的7,000亿美元的救助计划是必要的。
布什在周三晚间的黄金时段向全国民众发表讲话时称，整个美国经济正面临危险。这是迄今为止他对金融危机发表的最为严厉的讲话。
布什称，救助计划并不是为了保护个别公司或行业，而是旨在保护整个美国经济；它将帮助美国消费者和公司获得信贷，以满足其日常需求，并创造就业机会；它将有助于向全球市场传递一个信号，即美国金融系统正恢复正常运转。
布什政府因未能早一些提出救助方案而受到指责，对这一点，布什寻求解释问题的根源以及不作为的严重后果。
布什称，如果政府不采取行动，那么美国将陷入金融恐慌，并将出现痛苦不堪的局面。
-By Henry J. Pulizzi, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9256; henry.pulizzi@dowjones.com
-0-
版权所有(c)2008道琼斯公司
所谓保证金交易（国内俗称“虚盘”），就是交易者每次交易时，允许经纪商把他（交易者）事先存入经纪商账户的一笔资金作为该笔交易可能损失的担保品，签定交易合约进行交易的方式。这项担保资金就叫做“保证金”。
举例来说，如果经纪商设定的每手交易结算金额是100,000美元，要求的保证金是1,000美元，那么，就意味着只需要$1,000多一点的本金，就可以进行$100,000的外汇买卖。
举例来说，如果经纪商设定的每手交易结算金额是100,000美元，要求的保证金是1,000美元，那么，就意味着只需要$1,000多一点的本金，就可以进行$100,000的外汇买卖。
Just for remembering these answers so that I typed them out.
1. Give a general definition of "foreign exchange exposure" as it relates to the operations of a multinational enterprise.
In its general sense, foreign exposure is the possibilities of either beneficial or harmful effects on companies caused by the change in foreign exchange rates. The effect on the company may be on its cash flows, its profits, or its market value.
2. Explain the differences among the transaction, operation and translating exposure.
Transaction exposure is the potential gain or loss in contracted-for near term cash flows caused by a foreign exchange rate induced change in the value of amounts due to MNE or amount MNE owes to other parties. As such, it is a change in the home currency value of cash flows that are already contracted for.
Operating exposure is the potential for a change in the value of MNE, usually viewed as the present value of all cashinflows, caused by unexpected exchange rate changes. As such, it is a change in expected long-term cash flows; i.e., future cash flow expected in the cause of normal business but not yet contracted for.
Translation exposure is the possibility of change in the entity section(common stock, retained earnings, and equity reserves) of MNE's consolidated balance sheet, caused by a change (expected or not expected) in foreign exchange rates. As such, it is not a cash flow change but a result in consolidating into one parent company's financial statement the individual financial statements of related subsidiaries and affiliates.
3. What is risk tolerance? can it be measured?
Risk tolerance is the psychological or philosophical willingness of a firm, or of its managers, to bear risk. As such, it can not be quantified or measured, although observations and comparisons of management decisions over times can provide a rough inkling of such management's risk tolerance.
Variations in risk tolerance reflect the fact that different individuals have different opinions about whether or not a risk is worth bearing, or, conversely, whether or not a risk should be left open ended or hedged.
1. Give a general definition of "foreign exchange exposure" as it relates to the operations of a multinational enterprise.
In its general sense, foreign exposure is the possibilities of either beneficial or harmful effects on companies caused by the change in foreign exchange rates. The effect on the company may be on its cash flows, its profits, or its market value.
2. Explain the differences among the transaction, operation and translating exposure.
Transaction exposure is the potential gain or loss in contracted-for near term cash flows caused by a foreign exchange rate induced change in the value of amounts due to MNE or amount MNE owes to other parties. As such, it is a change in the home currency value of cash flows that are already contracted for.
Operating exposure is the potential for a change in the value of MNE, usually viewed as the present value of all cashinflows, caused by unexpected exchange rate changes. As such, it is a change in expected long-term cash flows; i.e., future cash flow expected in the cause of normal business but not yet contracted for.
Translation exposure is the possibility of change in the entity section(common stock, retained earnings, and equity reserves) of MNE's consolidated balance sheet, caused by a change (expected or not expected) in foreign exchange rates. As such, it is not a cash flow change but a result in consolidating into one parent company's financial statement the individual financial statements of related subsidiaries and affiliates.
3. What is risk tolerance? can it be measured?
Risk tolerance is the psychological or philosophical willingness of a firm, or of its managers, to bear risk. As such, it can not be quantified or measured, although observations and comparisons of management decisions over times can provide a rough inkling of such management's risk tolerance.
Variations in risk tolerance reflect the fact that different individuals have different opinions about whether or not a risk is worth bearing, or, conversely, whether or not a risk should be left open ended or hedged.
In finance, short selling or "shorting" is the practice of selling securities the seller does not then own, in the hope of repurchasing them later at a lower price. This is done in an attempt to profit from an expected decline in price of a security, such as a stock or a bond, in contrast to the ordinary investment practice, where an investor "goes long," purchasing a security in the hope the price will rise.
The term "short selling" or "being short" is often also used as a blanket term for all those strategies which allow an investor to gain from the decline in price of a security. Those strategies include buying options known as puts. A put option consists of the right to sell an asset at a given price; thus the owner of the option benefits when the market price of the asset falls. Similarly, a short position in a futures contract, or to be short a futures contract, means the holder of the position has the obligation to sell the underlying asset at a later date.
The term "short selling" or "being short" is often also used as a blanket term for all those strategies which allow an investor to gain from the decline in price of a security. Those strategies include buying options known as puts. A put option consists of the right to sell an asset at a given price; thus the owner of the option benefits when the market price of the asset falls. Similarly, a short position in a futures contract, or to be short a futures contract, means the holder of the position has the obligation to sell the underlying asset at a later date.
In finance, a long position in a security, such as a stock or a bond, or equivalently to be long in a security, means the holder of the position owns the security and will profit if the price of the security goes up.
Similarly, a long position in a futures contract or similar derivative, means the holder of the position will profit if the price of the underlying security goes up.
Similarly, a long position in a futures contract or similar derivative, means the holder of the position will profit if the price of the underlying security goes up.
美元最近又呈下跌趋势。之所以我对美元如此关注，是因为我也持美元观望中。
和讯特约
（和讯财经原创）
美元似乎市场已经看到反转的希望，但现在谈论这个似乎为时过早。个人对美元的预测是今年呈现U形的走势，目前没有走完U形有左侧部分，按这个预计，美元仍然将震荡下行，但是幅度远小于过去。
（和讯财经原创）
市场认为美元反转的理由在于：
（和讯财经原创）
一、欧元区本周经济数据不好，法国消费者信心指数下滑到二十年新低，上周德国IFO也告下滑，前者个人认为对欧元的影响不大，反倒是后者有待观察；
（和讯财经原创）
二、美元可能在明晨的利率会议上停止降息。从而使市场产生美元降息周期已经暂停的预期；
（和讯财经原创）
和讯特约
（和讯财经原创）
美元似乎市场已经看到反转的希望，但现在谈论这个似乎为时过早。个人对美元的预测是今年呈现U形的走势，目前没有走完U形有左侧部分，按这个预计，美元仍然将震荡下行，但是幅度远小于过去。
（和讯财经原创）
市场认为美元反转的理由在于：
（和讯财经原创）
一、欧元区本周经济数据不好，法国消费者信心指数下滑到二十年新低，上周德国IFO也告下滑，前者个人认为对欧元的影响不大，反倒是后者有待观察；
（和讯财经原创）
二、美元可能在明晨的利率会议上停止降息。从而使市场产生美元降息周期已经暂停的预期；
（和讯财经原创）
转贴，原帖地址已然找不到。我觉得自己很可笑，因为一个学习投资、学习金融的人，在中国股市最高的时候入市，在现在最佳时期，却又没有钱继续入市了。
持股等待。也许会涨到自己入市的时候，但这已经不能算炒股了。
如果入市，那么就趁现在。。。如果翻本。。。趁现在。。。
可怕的中国股市。
持股等待。也许会涨到自己入市的时候，但这已经不能算炒股了。
如果入市，那么就趁现在。。。如果翻本。。。趁现在。。。
可怕的中国股市。
Prospect theory is a theory that describes decisions between alternatives that involve risk, i.e. alternatives with uncertain outcomes, where the probabilities are known. The model is descriptive: it tries to model real-life choices, rather than optimal decisions.
这个理论很有趣的一点是：人们对金钱上的收入和损失的心里感受是完全不平均的。当你得到一点点的时候，你满足感会上升的很快，以至于你持续得到很多钱以后，你的满足感反而上升的变慢了；当你失去一点钱的时候，你很痛苦，但是随着你失去的越来越多，你反而不会像以前那么痛苦了。
这个理论很有趣的一点是：人们对金钱上的收入和损失的心里感受是完全不平均的。当你得到一点点的时候，你满足感会上升的很快，以至于你持续得到很多钱以后，你的满足感反而上升的变慢了；当你失去一点钱的时候，你很痛苦，但是随着你失去的越来越多，你反而不会像以前那么痛苦了。
In probability theory, Bayes' theorem (often called Bayes' Law) relates the conditional and marginal probabilities of two random events. It is often used to compute posterior probabilities given observations. For example, a patient may be observed to have certain symptoms. Bayes' theorem can be used to compute the probability that a proposed diagnosis is correct, given that observation. (See example 2)
As a formal theorem, Bayes' theorem is valid in all interpretations of probability. However, it plays a central role in the debate around the foundations of statistics: frequentist and Bayesian interpretations disagree about the ways in which probabilities should be assigned in applications. Frequentists assign probabilities to random events according to their frequencies of occurrence or to subsets of populations as proportions of the whole, while Bayesians describe probabilities in terms of beliefs and degrees of uncertainty. The articles on Bayesian probability and frequentist probability discuss these debates at greater length.
